• 微博
  • 微信微信二维码

广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

伍戈:积极财政会有多积极?赤字仍难破3%减税仍有限

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年02月21日 05:51:52
【字体:

彩宏娱乐主管QQ信誉平台官方,招龙虎和代理注册实力诚招代理Q扣992.77.339时时彩龙虎和,意彩彩票代理,意彩官网,意彩平台注册,意彩乐官网,意彩娱乐官方网站伍戈:积极财政会有多积极?赤字仍难破3%减税仍有限

5亿分手费仅剩1.5亿!赵薇前嫂子也宣布出手套现了….. 不敢相信!别了,飞机;别了,高房价?! 网传锤子楼下有人拉横幅还我血汗钱锤子尚未回应 扎心了!昔日与梅西齐名的英超巨星如今已沦为交易“添头”? 罗旭东刘炜先后受伤,后卫线三选一,李秋平只能被迫重用此人? 拳王血战到底!八人战刘中带伤夺冠赢三万奖金 阿里巴巴与比利时政府签署谅解备忘录 推动跨境贸易 曝皇马又一大将寻求离队 曾助球队夺3冠王如今被无情被抛弃 eBay启动为期12天的圣诞促销活动 多款产品5折销售 亚洲杯倒计时1个月!中韩足球狭路相逢,里皮曾在长沙破解恐韩症 阿森纳备好3000万转会费,与巴萨拜仁竞争法甲天才飞翼 SD:杰夫再次大战兰迪!AJ今天遭到重创! 年度最佳比赛再度上演?巨石强森表妹大战十字固女王,究竟谁更胜一筹? 寒光扬言要干掉全体训练生,强弱不等赛正式敲定! 国足球员围攻伊朗裁判,前足协主席:我坚决反对你们这种做法!

(原)(标)(题)(:伍)(戈)(:积)(极)(财)(政)(会)(有)(多)(积)(极)(?赤)(字)(仍)(难)(破)(3%减)(税)(仍)(有)(限)(
核)(心)(观)(点)(:
1.随)(着)(近)(期)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(凸)(显)(,积)(极)(财)(政)(更)(加)(积)(极)(已)(成)(为)(各)(界)(共)(识)(。尽)(管)(如)(此)(,明)(年)(财)(政)(政)(策)(究)(竟)(会)(有)(多)(积)(极)(?预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(会)(突)(破)(3%吗)(?减)(税)(力)(度)(会)(有)(多)(大)(?基)(建)(资)(金)(缺)(口)(如)(何)(弥)(补)(?这)(些)(都)(关)(乎)(明)(年)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(大)(势)(的)(研)(判)(。
2.过)(去)(20多)(年)(我)(国)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(未)(有)(破)(3%的)(先)(例)(,即)(便)(是)(国)(际)(金)(融)(危)(机)(、PPI持)(续)(通)(缩)(等)(困)(难)(时)(期)(也)(无)(例)(外)(。养)(老)(金)(缺)(口)(掣)(肘)(赤)(字)(率)(抬)(升)(,若)(未)(来)(还)(降)(低)(社)(保)(费)(率)(,将)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(财)(政)(压)(力)(。预)(计)(明)(年)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(有)(所)(提)(升)(,但)(难)(以)(突)(破)(3%。
3.尽)(管)(当)(前)(减)(税)(呼)(声)(很)(高)(,但)(历)(史)(经)(验)(表)(明)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(时)(期)(政)(府)(往)(往)(面)(临)(着)(税)(收)(减)(少)(的)(压)(力)(,与)(此)(同)(时)(还)(不)(得)(不)(增)(加)(支)(出)(以)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(。上)(述)(矛)(盾)(客)(观)(上)(制)(约)(了)(政)(府)(主)(动)(减)(税)(的)(空)(间)(。我)(们)(预)(计)(明)(年)(减)(税)(力)(度)(有)(望)(大)(于)(今)(年)(,但)(规)(模)(仍)(相)(对)(有)(限)(。
4.明)(年)(稳)(增)(长)(仍)(需)(基)(建)(发)(力)(。“开)(前)(门)(、堵)(后)(门)(”,财)(政)(严)(整)(顿)(和)(金)(融)(强)(监)(管)(大)(背)(景)(下)(,信)(托)(、委)(托)(等)(表)(外)(及)(非)(标)(融)(资)(扩)(张)(有)(限)(,而)(信)(贷)(、债)(券)(融)(资)(有)(望)(成)(为)(弥)(补)(基)(建)(融)(资)(缺)(口)(的)(发)(力)(点)(,尤)(其)(是)(不)(受)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(所)(限)(的)(专)(项)(债)(明)(年)(有)(望)(显)(著)(增)(加)(。
正)(文)(:
随)(着)(近)(期)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(凸)(显)(,积)(极)(财)(政)(更)(加)(积)(极)(已)(成)(为)(各)(界)(共)(识)(。10月)(底)(中)(央)(政)(治)(局)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(强)(调)(“实)(施)(好)(积)(极)(的)(财)(政)(政)(策)(和)(稳)(健)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(”,将)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(摆)(在)(了)(相)(对)(更)(为)(重)(要)(的)(位)(置)(,而)(财)(政)(部)(也)(不)(断)(表)(态)(积)(极)(财)(政)(更)(加)(积)(极)(。尽)(管)(如)(此)(,明)(年)(财)(政)(政)(策)(究)(竟)(会)(有)(多)(积)(极)(?预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(会)(突)(破)(3%吗)(?减)(税)(力)(度)(会)(有)(多)(大)(?基)(建)(资)(金)(缺)(口)(如)(何)(弥)(补)(?这)(些)(都)(关)(乎)(明)(年)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(大)(势)(的)(预)(判)(。
一)(、赤)(字)(率)(会)(破)(3%吗)(?
近)(期)(各)(界)(对)(于)(明)(年)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(目)(标)(突)(破)(3%充)(满)(争)(议)(。我)(们)(预)(计)(,积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(会)(更)(加)(积)(极)(。明)(年)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(也)(会)(在)(今)(年)(2.6%基)(础)(上)(有)(所)(提)(升)(,但)(仍)(难)(以)(突)(破)(3%的)(水)(平)(。具)(体)(地)(:
一)(是)(过)(去)(20多)(年)(以)(来)(我)(国)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(未)(有)(破)(3%的)(先)(例)(,即)(便)(是)(国)(际)(金)(融)(危)(机)(、PPI持)(续)(通)(缩)(等)(困)(难)(时)(期)(也)(无)(例)(外)(。展)(望)(明)(年)(,尽)(管)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(不)(容)(小)(觑)(,但)(考)(虑)(到)(近)(期)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(存)(在)(阶)(段)(性)(缓)(和)(迹)(象)(以)(及)(国)(内)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(力)(度)(边)(际)(放)(松)(,明)(年)(经)(济)(下)(行)(程)(度)(或)(将)(边)(际)(缓)(解)(。对)(比)(历)(史)(时)(期)(,明)(年)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(破)(3%缺)(乏)(现)(实)(必)(要)(性)(。
图)(1:即)(使)(历)(史)(困)(难)(时)(期)(,预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(也)(未)(突)(破)(3%
数)(据)(来)(源)(:Wind
注)(:图)(中)(2010年)(以)(前)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(是)(依)(据)(中)(央)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(规)(模)(/GDP近)(似)(估)(算)(。
二)(是)(养)(老)(金)(缺)(口)(形)(势)(严)(峻)(,掣)(肘)(赤)(字)(率)(抬)(升)(空)(间)(。人)(口)(老)(龄)(化)(加)(剧)(对)(养)(老)(金)(支)(付)(造)(成)(了)(越)(来)(越)(大)(的)(压)(力)(。例)(如)(,从)(2014年)(开)(始)(养)(老)(金)(入)(不)(敷)(出)(,对)(财)(政)(补)(贴)(依)(赖)(不)(断)(加)(强)(,养)(老)(金)(补)(贴)(在)(税)(收)(收)(入)(中)(占)(比)(从)(2%左)(右)(上)(升)(至)(2017年)(6%左)(右)(。未)(来)(这)(一)(趋)(势)(仍)(将)(延)(续)(,尤)(其)(是)(如)(果)(未)(来)(还)(降)(低)(社)(保)(费)(率)(,养)(老)(负)(担)(将)(进)(一)(步)(加)(大)(财)(政)(压)(力)(。
图)(2:养)(老)(金)(缺)(口)(掣)(肘)(赤)(字)(率)(抬)(升)(
数)(据)(来)(源)(:人)(社)(部)(、Wind
二)(、减)(税)(力)(度)(会)(有)(多)(大)(?
当)(前)(市)(场)(对)(于)(明)(年)(的)(减)(税)(政)(策)(充)(满)(期)(待)(。那)(么)(,减)(税)(力)(度)(究)(竟)(会)(有)(多)(大)(呢)(?我)(们)(预)(计)(,明)(年)(减)(税)(力)(度)(有)(望)(大)(于)(今)(年)(1.3万)(亿)(的)(幅)(度)(,但)(规)(模)(仍)(相)(对)(有)(限)(。具)(体)(地)(:
一)(是)(明)(年)(经)(济)(下)(行)(使)(得)(政)(府)(面)(临)(税)(收)(减)(少)(的)(压)(力)(。过)(去)(30年)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,税)(收)(增)(速)(与)(名)(义)(GDP增)(速)(呈)(现)(较)(好)(的)(同)(步)(关)(系)(。经)(济)(放)(缓)(引)(致)(企)(业)(利)(润)(和)(居)(民)(收)(入)(下)(滑)(,税)(基)(缩)(减)(,税)(收)(增)(速)(随)(之)(下)(行)(。
图)(3:经)(济)(下)(行)(,税)(收)(面)(临)(减)(少)(压)(力)(
数)(据)(来)(源)(:Wind
二)(是)(减)(税)(力)(度)(受)(到)(刚)(性)(支)(出)(和)(赤)(字)(率)(等)(的)(约)(束)(。财)(政)(支)(出)(方)(面)(约)(70%为)(涉)(及)(科)(教)(文)(卫)(、国)(防)(、医)(疗)(等)(基)(本)(公)(共)(服)(务)(与)(重)(点)(民)(生)(相)(关)(的)(刚)(性)(支)(出)(,压)(缩)(空)(间)(相)(对)(有)(限)(。尤)(其)(在)(经)(济)(下)(行)(时)(期)(,政)(府)(还)(不)(得)(不)(增)(加)(支)(出)(以)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(。上)(述)(矛)(盾)(客)(观)(上)(制)(约)(了)(政)(府)(主)(动)(减)(税)(的)(空)(间)(。
三)(是)(对)(比)(过)(去)(减)(税)(高)(峰)(,明)(年)(减)(税)(规)(模)(或)(难)(超)(历)(史)(阀)(值)(。次)(贷)(危)(机)(时)(期)(我)(国)(大)(力)(减)(税)(,统)(一)(内)(外)(资)(企)(业)(所)(得)(税)(率)(至)(25%同)(时)(调)(升)(个)(税)(起)(征)(点)(,但)(当)(时)(减)(税)(规)(模)(也)(未)(超)(过)(名)(义)(GDP的)(2%。今)(年)(我)(国)(减)(税)(力)(度)(不)(算)(小)(,1.3万)(亿)(的)(减)(税)(规)(模)(约)(占)(GDP1.4%左)(右)(。我)(们)(预)(计)(,明)(年)(减)(税)(力)(度)(将)(高)(于)(今)(年)(,不)(过)(也)(难)(超)(过)(GDP的)(2%。
图)(4:即)(使)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(时)(期)(,减)(税)(力)(度)(也)(较)(为)(有)(限)(
数)(据)(来)(源)(:Wind,笔)(者)(测)(算)(。
展)(望)(明)(年)(,综)(合)(个)(税)(方)(案)(调)(整)(带)(来)(的)(5000亿)(左)(右)(减)(税)(规)(模)(,并)(对)(增)(值)(税)(率)(并)(档)(、调)(降)(等)(不)(同)(方)(案)(进)(行)(测)(算)(,预)(计)(2019年)(我)(国)(减)(税)(规)(模)(为)(1.35-1.78万)(亿)(左)(右)(,占)(GDP比)(重)(在)(1.4%~2%之)(间)(。
三)(、基)(建)(缺)(口)(如)(何)(弥)(补)(?
稳)(增)(长)(仍)(需)(基)(建)(发)(力)(。明)(年)(稳)(增)(长)(需)(要)(多)(少)(基)(建)(投)(资)(呢)(?我)(们)(用)(自)(上)(而)(下)(的)(方)(法)(来)(进)(行)(预)(测)(:假)(设)(明)(年)(名)(义)(GDP目)(标)(增)(速)(为)(8%~8.5%(实)(际)(GDP为)(6%-6.5%);考)(虑)(到)(固)(定)(资)(本)(形)(成)(额)(占)(GDP比)(重)(大)(概)(在)(40%,而)(固)(定)(资)(本)(形)(成)(额)(又)(在)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(额)(中)(占)(比)(约)(为)(54%,因)(此)(估)(算)(出)(明)(年)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(总)(额)(约)(72万)(亿)(;进)(一)(步)(地)(,在)(投)(资)(内)(部)(结)(构)(中)(,预)(计)(明)(年)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(速)(回)(落)(至)(6.5%左)(右)(,房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(回)(落)(至)(5%~7%区)(间)(,其)(它)(投)(资)(或)(因)(积)(极)(财)(政)(而)(回)(升)(至)(7%左)(右)(。从)(而)(可)(得)(,明)(年)(基)(建)(投)(资)(增)(速)(预)(计)(在)(8.24%~11.33%的)(范)(围)(。
表)(1:稳)(增)(长)(,需)(要)(多)(少)(基)(建)(?
来)(源)(:笔)(者)(预)(测)(
与)(以)(往)(不)(同)(的)(是)(,本)(轮)(金)(融)(监)(管)(和)(财)(政)(整)(顿)(强)(化)(使)(得)(今)(年)(以)(来)(基)(建)(资)(金)(收)(缩)(明)(显)(。虽)(然)(10月)(底)(国)(常)(会)(对)(基)(建)(融)(资)(的)(约)(束)(边)(际)(放)(松)(,但)(债)(务)(从)(严)(管)(理)(依)(旧)(,“终)(身)(追)(责)(,倒)(查)(责)(任)(”对)(地)(方)(官)(员)(的)(束)(缚)(仍)(在)(。在)(此)(情)(况)(下)(,基)(建)(资)(金)(是)(否)(到)(位)(成)(为)(实)(现)(明)(年)(基)(建)(投)(资)(10%左)(右)(增)(速)(的)(关)(键)(。那)(么)(明)(年)(基)(建)(资)(金)(缺)(口)(有)(多)(大)(,如)(何)(弥)(补)(呢)(?
图)(5:基)(建)(融)(资)(虽)(边)(际)(放)(松)(,但)(债)(务)(趋)(严)(约)(束)(仍)(存)(
数)(据)(来)(源)(:Wind
从)(基)(建)(的)(各)(种)(融)(资)(方)(式)(来)(看)(,“开)(前)(门)(、堵)(后)(门)(”仍)(将)(是)(未)(来)(政)(策)(的)(主)(基)(调)(。明)(年)(投)(入)(基)(建)(的)(表)(内)(贷)(款)(和)(预)(算)(内)(资)(金)(规)(模)(将)(继)(续)(增)(加)(;自)(筹)(资)(金)(中)(:一)(方)(面)(,土)(地)(市)(场)(趋)(冷)(下)(政)(府)(性)(基)(金)(收)(入)(走)(低)(,信)(托)(、委)(托)(等)(表)(外)(和)(非)(标)(融)(资)(支)(持)(仍)(将)(受)(限)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(,政)(策)(基)(调)(边)(际)(放)(松)(情)(形)(下)(,城)(投)(债)(、PPP融)(资)(较)(今)(年)(将)(有)(所)(改)(善)(。综)(合)(下)(来)(,19.3万)(亿)(规)(模)(的)(基)(建)(投)(资)(仍)(面)(临)(1.65万)(亿)(左)(右)(的)(资)(金)(缺)(口)(,需)(要)(不)(计)(入)(赤)(字)(率)(的)(新)(增)(专)(项)(债)(或)(其)(它)(债)(券)(来)(弥)(补)(。考)(虑)(到)(新)(增)(专)(项)(债)(并)(非)(全)(部)(用)(于)(基)(建)(,预)(计)(明)(年)(新)(增)(专)(项)(债)(整)(体)(规)(模)(将)(扩)(大)(至)(2万)(亿)(左)(右)(。
图)(6:基)(建)(缺)(口)(如)(何)(弥)(补)(?
来)(源)(:笔)(者)(预)(测)(
四)(、基)(本)(结)(论)(
一)(是)(尽)(管)(财)(政)(更)(加)(积)(极)(已)(成)(各)(界)(共)(识)(,但)(明)(年)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(仍)(难)(突)(破)(3%的)(水)(平)(。过)(去)(20多)(年)(来)(我)(国)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(未)(有)(破)(3%的)(先)(例)(,即)(便)(是)(经)(济)(极)(端)(困)(难)(时)(也)(无)(例)(外)(。当)(前)(养)(老)(金)(缺)(口)(掣)(肘)(赤)(字)(率)(抬)(升)(,若)(未)(来)(还)(降)(低)(社)(保)(费)(率)(,将)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(财)(政)(压)(力)(。
二)(是)(尽)(管)(当)(前)(减)(税)(呼)(声)(很)(高)(,但)(历)(史)(经)(验)(表)(明)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(时)(期)(政)(府)(往)(往)(面)(临)(着)(税)(收)(减)(少)(的)(压)(力)(,与)(此)(同)(时)(还)(不)(得)(不)(增)(加)(支)(出)(以)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(。上)(述)(矛)(盾)(客)(观)(上)(制)(约)(了)(政)(府)(主)(动)(减)(税)(的)(空)(间)(。我)(们)(预)(计)(明)(年)(减)(税)(力)(度)(有)(望)(大)(于)(今)(年)(,但)(规)(模)(仍)(相)(对)(有)(限)(。
三)(是)(明)(年)(稳)(增)(长)(仍)(需)(基)(建)(发)(力)(。“开)(前)(门)(、堵)(后)(门)(”,财)(政)(严)(整)(顿)(和)(金)(融)(强)(监)(管)(大)(背)(景)(下)(,信)(托)(、委)(托)(等)(表)(外)(及)(非)(标)(融)(资)(的)(扩)(张)(有)(限)(,而)(信)(贷)(、债)(券)(融)(资)(有)(望)(成)(为)(弥)(补)(基)(建)(融)(资)(缺)(口)(的)(发)(力)(点)(,尤)(其)(是)(不)(受)(预)(算)(赤)(字)(率)(所)(限)(的)(专)(项)(债)(明)(年)(有)(望)(显)(著)(增)(加)(。
来)(源)(:金)(融)(界)(网)(站)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
)


相关文章

版权所有:南方新闻网 粤ICP备05070829 网站标识码4400000131
主办:南方新闻网 协办:广东省经济和信息化委员会 承办:南方新闻网
建议使用1024×768分辨率 IE7.0以上版本浏览器